The Ukrainian counteroffensive has begun

The counteroffensive announced by Ukraine since November has begun – from now on be careful with reporting: Maskirovka!

Peter Hanseler

Introduction

For months the Ukrainian government has been announcing the “Greatest Counteroffensive”.

For a long time nothing happened; once because of the weather, then because of the Western deliveries of weapons, now it seems to start, but not in the south, but on the southern flank of Bachmut.

From now on, at the latest, all sources – including Russian ones – should be taken with the utmost caution. Keyword: Maskirovka

Offense – Advantage attacker

The front has a length of over 1,000 km. This is a huge dilemma for the defensive. Where will the enemy attack? Should one make a decision and mass troops at those points where one expects the attack or should one distribute the troops evenly?

In the spring of 1942, the length of the Eastern Front was about 2,000 km. Stalin expected another attack on Moscow and many forces were thus massed in this section of the front.

He was wrong. Many German generals wanted to take Moscow, but Adolf Hitler urgently needed oil. The Wehrmacht was so weakened after the disaster in front of Moscow that an attack on Moscow and an offensive into the Caucasus were out of the question.

The offensive was therefore conducted in the south, where the Russians were weak. It failed in the winter of 1942 when the entire 6th Army was wiped out in Stalingrad, but the losses on the Russian side were once again gigantic.

Advance notice and expectations

Seit dem Winter ist es das erklärte Ziel der Ukrainer, bzw. der NATO, die Landbrücke der Russen irgendwo zwischen Melitopol und Mariupol abzuschneiden und dann die Krim zu nehmen.

The Russians have had months to build fortifications on the southern front and it seems unlikely that the Ukrainians will succeed, according to experts I believe. They simply do not have enough troops and weapons. It seems that this counteroffensive is not much more than a big propaganda campaign designed to keep the American taxpayers in line.

“The mistake of underestimating the Ukrainians is not made by the Russians.”

The Americans already used this strategy in Vietnam: There, victories were reported that were not victories, and only after Daniel Ellsberg published the Pentagon Papers in 1971 did the mood in the U.S. change.

Exactly the same strategy was used in Afghanistan for 20 years – untruths, until US troops withdrew last year in a humiliating move.

History seems to be repeating itself in Ukraine as well: a few weeks ago we saw Pentagon Papers 2.0 – again it became known that the Americans lied to their population in an incendiary way. See our article: “Pentagon Data Leak – Fiction Dies, Truth Lives“.

But it would be fatal to underestimate the Ukrainians. If one follows the statements of the Russian side and independent Russian bloggers, it is clear: The Russians are not making the mistake of underestimating the Ukrainians.

Counteroffensive starts south of Bachmut

To the surprise of many, however, the Ukrainians have begun their counteroffensive in the north on the southern flank of Bachmut occupied by the Russians. The goal will probably be to expand this bridgehead, shown in orange on the map, and stab the Russians in Bachmut in the back.

This proves that Bachmut is not just any city with symbolic value, as claimed by Ukraine and the West, but is the main transport hub near Donetsk. If Bachmut falls, the battle for Donetsk is probably decided.

In Bachmut, however, the Russians are making daily advances and fighting is underway for the last citadel.

How this counteroffensive for the southern flank – and probably soon for the northern flank of Bachmut – will end, I do not know, but one can assume an act of desperation on the part of the Ukrainians.

From now on: Maskirovka – misinformation will rule

The Russians have coined a term: Маскировка, roughly translated as deception or camouflage.

Russians are absolute masters in this field. This may be related to the last big deception before Operation Bagration in 1944, when the Russians managed to deceive the Wehrmacht into believing that their summer offensive against Army Group South would take place. As a result, Army Group Center in White Russia settled in for a quiet summer.

What followed resulted in the greatest defeat of the Wehrmacht in German military history. Within six weeks, the Germans lost 26 divisions and the Russians conquered an area the size of Germany.

“The Russians have a clear advantage in this – they have time”.

However, I would point out that the technological conditions are different today. It is probably no longer possible to move entire armies in the night without this not being seen by the enemy through satellites and drone surveillance.

Nevertheless, observers – including VoicefromRussia – study published maps on a daily basis, where exactly where troop formations are at any given moment is marked.

I assume that both sides will falsify any information available to the enemy and thus to us as observers. The Russians have a clear advantage here – they have time; they do not have to present any victories to their Western allies.

I assume that during this summer offensive the disinformation of the Russians will reach a new level. The goal of the Russians is not to look good in the short term; the only goal of the Russians will be to prevail.

Conclusion

The Ukrainian counteroffensive has begun, but not – as expected in the south – but on the southern flank of Bachmut.

From this it can be concluded that Bachmut – contrary to Ukraine’s assertions – is not only of symbolic value, but has a key position.

Bachmut itself hangs by a thread for the Ukrainians. Barring any major surprises, the Russians will capture the last fortifications in Bachmut in the coming weeks.

Whether the Ukrainians have the strength to cut off the Russian land corridor in the south seems highly unlikely in my opinion, but that also means that anything is possible in war.