Bakhmut – Ukrainian counteroffensive: yes, no, when?

Bakhmut is finished – Since the late autumn of last year Selenskyj has been announcing the great counter-offensive – what’s going on?

Peter Hanseler

Bakhmut

Introduction

Heavy fighting has been raging in Bakhmut since last fall. 

President Selensky – and the Western media – initially described the city as strategically extremely important. Since it is foreseeable that the city will soon fall, people speak only of its symbolic value. As always, the narrative is twisted to make the West’s grotesque reporting look great – free of facts.

Situation on April 30

The situation on Sunday, April 30, 2023 shows that Ukrainians still hold about 1.5 km2 of Bachmut. This is 3% of the city area on the western edge, far from the center. Bachmut is about a quarter larger than the city of Zurich (42 km2/34 km2). 

All major connecting roads and railroads that could supply the remaining Ukrainian troops have been cut off by the Russians. The Ukrainians are left with access only through open terrain, without any significant paved roads, but all these can be covered by the Russian artillery. A catastrophic situation for the Ukrainians.

The Ukrainian troops are effectively trapped. This has been foreseeable for weeks, but President Selenskyj does not seem to care. He sent thousands of troops into the meat grinder in recent weeks, knowing full well that his troops would be wiped out, which is what is happening now. 

This inhumane tactic is reminiscent of Stalingrad 1942, where Hitler – for reasons that are incomprehensible – sacrificed his 300,000-strong 6th Army, even though the hopelessness of the endeavor was apparent months earlier. 

Per day the Ukrainians lost – in Bachmut alone – between 500 and 700 soldiers. The Russian casualties of the Wagner Group are estimated at 70-90.

“Mrs. Baerbock would be in a dilemma even before she left: would she need her makeup artist on the front lines?”

These are sons of mothers and fathers of children on both sides. This is a human catastrophe, no matter which side one sees in the right.

All those in the West who support this madness should go to the front themselves, then the enthusiasm for war and hatred would be much less. Mrs. Baerbock would be in a dilemma even before departure: Would she need her make-up artist at the front?

Bachmut will fall – whether it will happen by May 9 – the day of victory (День Победы) is secondary. The leader of the Wagner group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, speaks of May 15. A turnaround can be ruled out.

The great Ukrainian counter-offensive

Introduction

Since last November, President Selenskyj has been announcing the great Ukrainian counteroffensive. 

In the process, all Russian-occupied territories – including Crimea – are to be “liberated.” 

Whether these Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine, which make up about 20 percent of pre-war Ukraine, want to be “liberated” at all does not seem to concern President Selenskyj and the West.

Offensive with announcement – grotesque

The plans of the Ukrainians were announced. 

The offensive is to begin in the south. The first blow is to be struck from Kherson and Zaporizhzhya against Mariupol and Melitopol in order to cut off the Russians’ land connection to Crimea. 

After that, Crimea is to be “liberated.” By the way, I was in Crimea in 2021 – certainly no one wants to be “liberated” there. Since 2014, this beautiful peninsula has been rebuilt by the Russians with immense resources. Putin turned a garbage dump into a jewel. No one there wants the old management back. 

These loudmouthed announcements gave the Russians almost half a year to fortify the entire front, making the offensive difficult or even impossible.

“The Russians are less chatty.”

The fact that the offensive has not yet begun is explained by the weather and the fact that weapons deliveries from the West have not yet been received. 

A similar situation already existed in 1943 when Adolf Hitler delayed the start of the Kursk offensive (Operation Citadel) from May to July 1943. Hitler wanted to wait for the delivery of new tanks. 

During this time, the Russians built thousands of kilometers of fortifications around Kursk. About 1.8 million Russians and about 750,000 Germans participated in this slaughter. 

The battle finally took place between July 5 and 16, 1943 and went down in history as the last offensive of the Wehrmacht in the East. 

A complete fiasco for the Germans, the biggest tank battle around the village of Prokhorovka and gigantic losses on both sides. 

This battle for Kursk was also an offensive with announcement. 

The Russians are less chatty.

Chances of success minimal

Apart from the fact that – for the purpose of propaganda – this big counteroffensive has been announced again and again, the two most experienced experts, Scott Ritter and Colonel Macgregor, agree that the Ukrainians simply lack the human and military resources to implement such a gigantic plan. Their voices, however, are lost in the propaganda din of the West. 

What can be anticipated with certainty, however, is the fact that once again tens of thousands of dead will be the result of this – probably – hopeless offensive – Herr Hitler sends his regards.